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Latitude analysis finds planned supply gap for contracted data-center load

The research arm estimates about 120 TWh without planned supply under a 65% utilization assumption. This is a covered-utility planning scenario, not a measured nationwide power shortage or household bill forecast.

By Greener Numbers Editorial Team · Published November 11, 2026 · Updated 11/11/2026

A November 10 analysis by Latitude Intelligence, Latitude Media's research arm, estimates a gap between signed data-center power demand and planned generation at the vertically integrated utilities it covers. The author, research head Nick Zenkin, says resource plans through 2035 leave about a quarter of that electricity demand without planned supply. The finding concerns future plans and a defined set of utilities, not electricity already going unserved across the United States.

The analysis counts a data-center project as signed only when the customer has executed an agreement to take power. That is narrower than a utility's entire development pipeline or some reported "contracted capacity" figures that also include engineering and construction letters. Those preliminary arrangements can fund work without committing the customer to take electric service, so headline pipeline totals are not interchangeable with signed demand.

At a 65% average draw on contracted capacity, the analysis estimates that 69 GW of gas plants planned or under construction would supply about 45% of covered signed data-center electricity needs. All proposed carbon-free projects would supply about 30%, leaving about 120 TWh without planned supply. The carbon-free group includes hydro as well as solar, wind, nuclear and geothermal. Proposed plants are not completed generation.

Approval status changes the scenario. If only regulator-approved carbon-free projects are counted, their share falls to 15% and the unplanned share rises to 40%. Latitude estimates that filling the gap with wind or solar would take roughly 40-60 GW when all proposed projects count, versus 60-90 GW when only approved projects count. The higher range is conditional, not a single requirement applying to every case.

Utilization is another major uncertainty. If the signed facilities draw 90% rather than 65% of contracted capacity, Latitude estimates that annual electricity needs rise by about 170 TWh. Planned plants would cover only part of that increase, taking the remaining planning gap to about 225 TWh. The analysis also says 63 GW of planned solar, wind and batteries had not gone out to bid. Neither number establishes that projects will fail or that demand will reach the assumed level.

The practical issue is whether contracts, procurement and approved supply advance together. The article presents the research organization's own estimates; it is not a regulator's finding, an independent audit of every utility or a forecast of a particular household's bill. Capacity, annual energy and dependable output at peak hours are different measures. A planned-supply gap does not by itself quantify customer rate increases, emissions or actual outages.