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IEEFA puts Vietnam LNG import exposure at USD15.5-23.6 billion in full-buildout scenario

The October 14 analysis models the cost of developing all 22.5 GW in Vietnam's LNG plan. It is not an observed import bill or a household-price forecast.

By Greener Numbers Editorial Team · Published October 14, 2026 · Updated 10/14/2026

IEEFA published an October 14, 2026 analysis arguing that Vietnam should reassess its planned expansion of liquefied natural gas power. The country's revised Power Development Plan VIII targets 22.5 gigawatts of LNG-fired capacity by 2030. The report estimates that developing all of it could require USD15.5 billion to USD23.6 billion in annual LNG imports. This is a conditional fuel-import estimate, not money already spent or a measured increase in household bills.

The research group estimates that this full-buildout scenario could increase Vietnam's energy import bill by about 66 to 106 percent. It links the exposure to imported fuel prices, rising construction costs and equipment delays. These figures describe IEEFA's analysis of the planned fleet, not a government commitment that every proposed plant will be completed on schedule.

IEEFA puts current LNG-fired generation costs at USD140 to USD180 per megawatt-hour. It compares that with a government ceiling tariff of USD129.60 per MWh and an average retail electricity price of USD84 per MWh. Generation cost, a ceiling tariff and a retail price are different measures. Their comparison signals financing and cost-recovery pressure; it does not establish the price a particular customer will pay.

The analysis estimates that utility-scale solar and onshore wind could produce electricity below the LNG ceiling tariff. Those comparisons are generation-cost estimates, not proof that either technology alone can supply demand around the clock. The report also calls for investment in transmission, storage and other sources of power-system flexibility to manage congestion, curtailment and renewable integration.

Fuel assumptions matter. The release says the Japan-Korea Marker spot LNG price averaged USD18.74 per million British thermal units from the outbreak of the Middle East conflict through the end of August 2026. That is a historical period average, not today's spot quote or a fixed price for every Vietnamese import contract. Future fuel prices and plant utilization could change the modeled import bill.

IEEFA recommends reviewing the scale and sequence of LNG projects, directing more near-term investment toward domestic renewable resources, and improving procurement and grid-connection rules. These are the research group's recommendations, not newly enacted Vietnamese policy. Its own report notes that earlier renewable growth outpaced transmission investment and that changes to pricing arrangements affected investor confidence. Cheaper generation still needs workable contracts, financing and a grid that can deliver it.

Official source: ieefa.org ↗