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EIA estimates small-scale solar reached 92,979 GWh, with slower growth after 2022

The October 16 analysis puts California at 37% of the 2025 total. Small-scale generation is modeled from utility capacity data, not metered at every rooftop.

By Greener Numbers Editorial Team · Published October 16, 2026 · Updated 10/16/2026

U.S. small-scale solar generation increased from 18,812 gigawatt-hours to an estimated 92,979 gigawatt-hours over the last decade, the Energy Information Administration reported on October 16, 2026. Its analysis concerns systems smaller than one megawatt of capacity, including rooftop solar, rather than the entire U.S. solar fleet.

California produced 34,411 gigawatt-hours in 2025, or 37% of the national small-scale total. The EIA says the state's small-scale capacity increased from 18 gigawatts in 2024 to 20 gigawatts in 2025, while generation rose 8%. Capacity measures potential output; generation measures electricity produced over time.

Arizona ranked next with 5,795 gigawatt-hours, more than 6% of the U.S. total. Texas rose from 391 gigawatt-hours in 2016 to 5,408 in 2025, and Florida rose from 205 to 5,198 over the same period. These are state totals, not a forecast of what an individual roof will generate.

New York ranked fifth despite lower solar resources than leading Sunbelt states. The EIA points to technology improvements and state incentives as support for capacity growth, and also identifies programs in New Jersey, Massachusetts and Illinois. The analysis does not establish that any particular customer qualifies for an incentive today.

National small-scale generation grew 25% in 2022, but the EIA says annual growth has slowed since then even as generation continues to rise. It identifies California's transition from NEM 2.0 to the Net Billing Tariff as one factor in the earlier installation surge. The analysis is not a current tariff quote or a household payback calculation.

The generation figures are estimates, not readings from every rooftop. The EIA surveys utilities for customer counts and aggregate capacity, then uses modeling tools including the System Advisor Model and PVWatts because utilities may not know generation behind customer meters. Roof orientation and tilt assumptions are part of that method, which matters when comparing national estimates with a specific installation.

Official source: U.S. Energy Information Administration ↗