daily · Clean Energy
EIA forecasts record 2026 power generation, with solar leading growth
The November outlook projects almost 4,390 billion kilowatthours this year. Forecast solar and wind additions are not completed projects or a guarantee of lower household bills.
By Greener Numbers Editorial Team · Published November 10, 2026 · Updated 11/10/2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that electric power sector generation will reach a record of almost 4,390 billion kilowatthours in 2026, up 2.7% from 2025. Its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released November 10, attributes the increase to rising commercial-sector demand and hot summer weather. This is an annual forecast, not a final measurement of the full year.
EIA expects generation growth to slow to 1.2% in 2027. It projects continued increases in commercial and industrial electricity demand, partly offset by lower residential demand under its assumption of milder summer weather. A change in the weather or in large-load demand could change that balance; the outlook does not guarantee the same growth in every region.
Utility-scale solar supplies most of the forecast generation growth. EIA projects its share of U.S. electricity generation will rise from 7% in 2025 to 8% in 2026 and nearly 10% in 2027. Wind's projected share rises from 11% in 2025 to 12% by 2027. These are generation shares, not shares of installed capacity or of household electricity bills.
The outlook assumes 72 gigawatts of solar capacity and 20 gigawatts of wind capacity come online across 2026 and 2027. Those two-year additions should not be presented as already completed construction or as additions in a single year. The forecast depends in part on projects reaching operation on the assumed schedule.
EIA projects natural gas will supply close to 40% of generation in 2026 and 2027, while nuclear averages 18%. Coal's share is forecast to fall from 17% in 2025 to 15% in 2027 as 13 gigawatts of capacity is scheduled to retire by the end of 2027. A falling generation share does not by itself mean the same percentage decline in output.
The forecast was completed November 5 and does not specifically incorporate later market events. For households, the report describes the national supply-and-demand outlook; it does not establish a local utility rate, a guaranteed bill reduction or that commercial electricity sales have already overtaken residential sales. Those claims should not be inferred from rising national generation or renewable additions.