EIA forecasts a $3.78 average U.S. gasoline price for 2026. That is a national outlook—not a pump-price quote.

Confirmed facts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will average $3.78 per gallon in 2026. EIA’s table shows an actual annual average of $3.10 per gallon for 2025 and projects $3.29 per gallon for 2027.

EIA released the outlook on August 11, 2026 and says its forecast was completed August 6. The agency’s current overview also projects Brent crude oil at an average of $87 per barrel in 2026 and $69 per barrel in 2027.

Compared with EIA’s July outlook, its August forecast for the 2026 wholesale gasoline price rose 5.9%, to $2.91 per gallon. Wholesale gasoline is a different measure from the retail price projection cited above.

Analysis

Fuel-price assumptions materially affect a household transportation budget and any comparison between a gasoline vehicle and an EV. EIA’s national annual retail-price projection offers a transparent, current starting point for scenario planning—but it should remain an editable assumption rather than be treated as a guaranteed local cost.

The distinction between wholesale and retail matters. A retail pump price also reflects distribution, marketing, taxes, and location-specific conditions, so a revision to EIA’s wholesale forecast is not a one-for-one estimate of a change at a local station.

Unknowns and limits

This is a forecast, not an observation or a price guarantee. EIA’s outlook can change as its assumptions and market conditions change. It does not provide a forecast for a particular state, station, fuel grade, date, or driver.

The outlook does not establish an individual vehicle’s fuel cost or an EV’s savings. Those depend on miles driven, fuel economy, charging consumption, the applicable electricity rate, public-charging use, taxes, and the prices actually available to that driver. Readers making a purchase decision should compare current local prices and their own usage rather than use the national annual projection alone.