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EDF and Atlas report 68 GW fossil buildout plans, not guaranteed operating capacity

The October 13 report uses Q2 2026 project data. Its possible 70 percent fossil share is for new capacity additions in 2030, not the entire electricity supply.

By Greener Numbers Editorial Team · Published October 13, 2026 · Updated 10/13/2026

Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy released An Inflection Point for the U.S. Power Sector on October 13, 2026. The analysis uses U.S. Energy Information Administration generator data reflecting the pipeline as of the second quarter of 2026. It examines proposed and under-construction capacity, not a list of projects already delivering electricity.

Developers expected about 68 gigawatts of new fossil capacity to come online between 2026 and 2030, nearly all natural gas. The report compares that with 47 GW expected at the end of 2025, a 45 percent increase in the planned amount over six months. These are developer plans recorded in the dataset, not guaranteed completions.

If the projects arrive on their reported schedules, fossil plants could account for about 70 percent of new nameplate capacity coming online in 2030. That is an annual additions share, not a claim that fossil fuels will supply 70 percent of all U.S. electricity in that year.

The report warns that turbine shortages, rising construction costs and uncertainty about large electricity loads could prevent some gas projects from being built. Its methodology notes reporting delays and preliminary monthly estimates that may change. It includes generators of at least one megawatt.

Nameplate capacity is maximum rated output, not actual generation. The report's clean-power grouping includes batteries, wind, solar, geothermal and hydropower but excludes nuclear and biomass. Those definitions matter when comparing its totals with other energy datasets.

Limits: this is Atlas Public Policy's analysis supported by EDF, not an EIA forecast endorsing every conclusion. Clean power still dominates capacity coming online today. A possible future change in additions does not establish a measured household bill increase or prove any individual plant will operate on time.

Official source: edf.org ↗